We predict US Sportsbook market shares

HoldCrunch is a uniquely powerful platform for assessing the operational performance of US Sportsbooks and predicting market share trends
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We add ‘price’ (RTP/odds/lines) to the traditional mix of Handle, GGR and NGR to offer new levels of accuracy when evaluating Sportsbook performance and predicting market share trends

The table shows 2023 Handle, GGR and NGR with the HoldCrunch Percentage and NGR+, our core products. These two numbers can accurately predict a Sportsbook’s future market share, and if you’re a Sportsbook they are KPIs for success

The current outlook for US Sportsbooks is DraftKings/FanDuel maintaining their duopoly with BetMGM the strongest of the major challengers. Read on and subscribe to find out why

The ‘HoldCrunch Percentage’ says three things

1. It is a measure of how far a Sportsbook is competing on price/RTP. The lower the percentage the better the prices for customers. A ‘0% HoldCrunch’ book is the leader on price on the lines and markets where customers put their money. A ‘100% HoldCrunch’ book is offering the worst prices in all markets

2. It is a leading indicator of handle share movement. A sustained 10% HoldCrunch gap, e.g. 11% vs 21% is likely to result in customers switching. The table shows this level of gap between DraftKings and FanDuel on the one hand, and the challengers on the other. Price was a significant factor in market share consolidation around the two leaders in 2023. See our Insights page for examples of how DraftKings and FanDuel also battled it out during the year. They were by no means always the same on price, and that battle continues

3. It is a percentage cost against GGR that reflects the impact of competing on price. Just as GGR becomes NGR when deducting the cost of promo spend, the HoldCrunch Percentage reflects the cost of competing on price. Offering -109 rather than -110 might be an ‘odds boost’ promo cost or it might be an ongoing pricing choice. Either way, it’s a cost against GGR, and the HoldCrunch Percentage quantifies it. See below for how we do it

‘NGR+’ is more accurate than NGR

‘NGR+’ is our second core product. It is NGR after the cost of competing on price. That is why NGR+ is a more accurate measure of margin performance than NGR

  • Competing on price is important because our data shows that handle share stabilises when competing on price. See our Insights page for examples
  • NGR is therefore only a snapshot. It is saying ‘what’s the current margin of this Sportsbook irrespective of where handle share is trending?’ NGR+ says ‘what’s the sustainable margin performance of this Sportsbook?’

NGR+ is calculated by subtracting promo spend and the cost of equaling the leader on price (the HoldCrunch Percentage) from GGR. An example using DraftKings’ data in the table:

  • GGR is 9.48%, promo spend is 40.06% (of GGR) and the HoldCrunch Percentage is 11.62%
  • Note that DraftKings led on price in some sports and markets in 2023, but it wasn’t the leader all the time otherwise its HoldCrunch would have been 0%
  • DraftKings’ NGR+ calculation is: 9.48% (GGR), minus 51.68% (promo spend + HoldCrunch) = 4.58%. It is a Sportsbook’s true margin performance

To sum it all up, you can predict market share success by looking for low HoldCrunch Percentages and high NGR+ margins because competitive prices and strong, sustainable margins are prerequisites for any Sportsbook to compete, no matter how good their product or brand

States reporting NGR at the Operator Level - Feb to Dec 2023

Sportsbook Handle ($m) GGR ($m) GGR (%) Promo Spend NGR (%) HoldCrunch (%) NGR+ (%)
DraftKings 9,983 946 9.48% 40.06% 5.68% 11.62% 4.58%
FanDuel 11,658 1,345 11.53% 32.21% 7.82% 11.14% 6.53%
BetMGM 2,912 295 10.11% 51.86% 4.87% 21.66% 2.68%
Fanatics/PB 479 43 8.95% 107.11% -0.64% 19.70% -2.40%
Caesars 1,828 102 5.58% 34.92% 3.63% 17.40% 2.66%